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Saudi Arabia to Cut Oil Exports to All Regions Next Month

13 Noviembre 2017

The global oil benchmark, Brent Oil broke above $62/bbl as the clearing of accused corrupt individuals is seen as a nod to increased probabilities of OPEC+ ( a moniker for OPEC and strategic allies) pushing forward with production curbs past the March 2018 program end date.

Overall, I think prices are currently approaching the higher end of the trading range for the rest of the year, and will be looking for a mean reversion towards or below $60 in the weeks to come. Still, traders expressed caution that the oil price rally may have run its course after pushing up Brent more than 40 percent since July. Most bluntly, if the Orbital data are accurate, it says that Saudi officials were not exaggerating when they said they were ready to do whatever it takes to rebalance the market-"whatever" in this case meaning less-than-truthful about their inventories. Its satellites collect and analyze images of the floating roofs of these tanks, estimating the amount of oil each holds based on the shadow the oil casts across the top.

EIA estimates that, without pipeline constraints, moving crude oil from Cushing to the U.S. Gulf Coast typically costs $3.50 per barrel, but it has gotten more expensive as transportation constraints have developed.

Saudi Arabia's shipments have fallen between November and December every year since 2009, by an average 243,000 barrels a day, according to data the country submits to the Joint Organizations Oil Data Initiative. That means these companies will need oil services, such as storage, movement and infrastructure.

"I have great confidence in King Salman and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, they know exactly what they are doing", he tweeted. If correct, the 2018 figure would be the highest annual average production in US history, exceeding the previous record of 9.6m bbl/day in 1970.

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U.S. crude production C-OUT-T-EIA rose 67,000 barrels per day to 9.62 million bpd, the highest for decades, and looked set to rise further. The American shale industry has been let free to increase production in response to higher prices, thus imposing a cap on the price of oil.

Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count revealed a 9-rig increase, to 738, the biggest increase since June, nearly negating the 11-rig drop seen last week.

He added that GRMs are expected to moderate over the medium term due to global refinery capacity additions, net of closures exceeding demand growth. Crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico averaged 1.4 million barrels a day in October, which was 260,000 barrels a day lower than the September level.

Saudi Arabia to Cut Oil Exports to All Regions Next Month